Summer 2024: No Matter Where You Are, We’ve Got Your Forecast

What weather events are we in for this summer season? No matter where your healthcare organization is in the US, we’ve got some predictions.

It’s important to keep a proactive eye on the weather to best protect your healthcare facility. Knowing what to expect can help make a massive difference and help you avoid building damage. To help this process, we’ve gathered forecasts from reputable weather organizations in one easy reference spot.

So, what weather patterns are we expecting?

We hate to be the ones to tell you, but pretty much wherever your healthcare organization is in the US, get ready for an unusually hot summer in 2024. In a map released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in April of 2024, where red and orange represent warmer-than-average temperatures, almost the entire map is covered in red or orange. These higher temperatures are expected for June, July and August.

No part of the US is forecast to have cooler-than-average summer temperatures. Along with possibly bringing the highest temperatures ever on record, according to the Farmers’ Almanac, this summer will also bring lots of moisture in the form of rain, humidity and thunderstorms.

New England is set for another wet summer and thunderstorms will come often in the Great Lakes and Midwest region of the US. Southeastern states and the Mid-Atlantic region will also receive a lot of rain and steamy days. The Southwest will see hot, dry conditions most of the summer. The Pacific Northwest will also be dry, but temperatures won’t be as high.

There are other weather events that healthcare organizations in the US could experience this summer, depending on location. They are outlined below.

La Niña

Last summer we contended with El Niño, this summer we’ll deal with La Niña. Both are climate patterns that occur in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather conditions worldwide and impact wildfires, ecosystems and economies. These opposing climate patterns can last nine to 12 months and sometimes go on for years. El Niño and La Niña occur every two-to-seven years, on average. El Niño happens more frequently than La Niña.

La Niña means “little girl” in Spanish. La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, versus El Niño, which brings unusually warm ocean temperatures to the Equatorial Pacific.

Cold water in the Pacific will push the jet stream forward, leading to drought in the southern US and heavy rain and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. Check out this Flood Safety Checklist from the Red Cross if you live in the Pacific Northwest, plus this Property Mitigation flyer from Glatfelter about how you can protect your property after water-related catastrophes.

La Niña can also lead to a more severe hurricane season.

Hurricanes

An “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season is expected for 2024, reports the Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecasting team. The team is calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 210 (171% of average). To compare, the long-term averages for 1991-2022 were 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes and an ACE of 123. This forecast is the most aggressive since the CSU team started tracking weather 30 years ago.

The CSU team predicts much higher odds of a major hurricane hitting the US than usual—62% (average is 43%). It gives a 34% chance of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast or Florida Peninsula, a 42% chance for the Gulf Coast and a 47% chance for the Caribbean.

To help prepare for a hurricane if you’re in any of these potentially-affected areas, read the following resources:

• Glatfelter’s Hurricane Preparedness and Response Checklist.
• Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA)’s article on Hurricane Preparedness and Response.
• In case your area is expecting a hurricane, be sure to read Glatfelter’s guide on Are You Ready to Handle a Hurricane?
• The National Weather Service’s Hurricane Safety Tips and Resources, which provides guidance about hurricanes from preparation to after a hurricane.

Wildfires

Since we had a wet winter, forecasters are predicting there will be a slow start to the 2024 wildfire season in much of the US. However, some areas are likely to see change starting in the summer:

The Great Basin and Southwest may see elevated wildfire activity at the beginning of the summer. With El Niño going out, a midsummer shift is likely in its wake. The remainder of wildfire season is not solidified in forecasters’ minds, but it seems things could go one of two ways:

1. Prior rapid transitions to La Niña led to cooler, wetter summers in many parts of the country. But we know this summer is set to be one of, if not the hottest, summer on record. So, which will it be? Apparently, any singular weather event this spring, like a strong heat wave, intense lightning or a widespread wind storm could quickly escalate fire activity across the country.
2. Another result of a rapid transition to La Niña could be dry summer conditions in Southern California, the Southwest and the Great Plains. La Niña could also cause a later state to typical fall precipitation, which could enable summer fires to go on longer than usual.

For wildfire-specific resources, visit Glatfelter Healthcare’s severe weather website and expand the Wildfires section.

As with every summer—at least in this century—and as with every weather event, like wildfires, mother nature is just too unpredictable to say for sure what will happen. However, based on decades of research, these predictions are likely, and give us the chance to proactively prepare.

No matter what natural disaster you face, there’s a good chance Glatfelter has a risk resource or blog on it. For more severe weather resources, visit the link below:

Also, check out our healthcare blog here: https://insurance.glatfelters.com/tag/healthcare